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I’ve done a couple of mock drafts and a couple of real ones now and I’ve realised that there are just some players who I don’t particularly have anything against, but I just won’t end up with them simply because someone else is prepared to take them a lot higher than I am.Overrated
Players get hyped up in the pre-season to such an extent that some drafters rate them way above realistic expectations, drafting them before players you rate more. These are guys you should keep an eye on to avoid if possible, as you’ll end up throwing out your team balance and pay too much for them. Controversy may arise from some of the players I have named in the overrated category, but I think people can get better value elsewhere.
Here’s a guy I picked up in a league last year off the waiver wire and who served me very well. Although he is a forward and forward scarcity is high I don’t believe it’s worth paying a third rounder for him. That’s where he has been going and that is the price you’re going to have to pay to get him. I can see why people draft him there, he’s young and could improve significantly on his average, but for me one year of fantasy relevant production isn’t enough of a sample size for a third round pick. Late 4th, early 5th as my 2nd forward, sure I’ll take him, but definitely not as my 3rd selection when guys like Brent Stanton and Keiren Jack have been sliding past there.
Yes there have many pre season rumblings about how good he is going in pre-season and how much midfield time he is going to get with several young Lions departing in the off-season. But he burnt fantasy owners including this one so badly last season. I had him in one league and he wasn’t even startable, only averaging 74 fantasy points when I spent a 4th round pick to get him. If you believe the hype you’re going to have to pay a 9th or 10th round pick to get him, I’m not prepared to pay that price when there is a guy like Tom Lynch still available who averaged 87 fantasy points last year, and is young and can improve further.
Buddy has been going in the middle of the second round in drafts that I have participated in so far, which is way too early for my liking. If you take a look at the Footy Prophet rankings you’ll see I have him a lot lower than the other guys. There is a valid reason for this; he averaged 78 last year! Yes, he has averaged 100 in seasons gone by, but I am not willing to accept the amount of risk that comes with spending a second round pick on him. If he repeats his fantasy production from last year he isn’t worth a 10th round pick. I feel like no one else is taking this into account, and people are drafting him as if last year never happened.
From the drafts I have completed so far I have realised that there are players that are slipping far too late for no particular reason. The value on midfielders in the middle rounds are fantastic, simply because teams who can’t resist the temptation to load up on the premium midfielders at the top end of the draft are the same teams scrambling for backs and forwards in the middle rounds. Here are a few players I have found myself picking up late.
The 27-year-old was in great form last year, excelling in the Adelaide midfield. He averaged 96 fantasy points in 2013. He has since had his forward eligibility taken away from him, and is now only available as a midfield option in Ultimate Footy. This may why people are shying away, but you can grab him around the 13th round in most drafts. With Nathan Van Berlo to miss a lot of the season, Douglas should remain a crucial cog in that Adelaide midfield and maintain his fantasy production from 2013.
The 30 year old has averaged in the mid 90s for four years on the trot; there is no reason to suggest that 2014 will be any different. Yet he is often available around the 10th round. If you’re thinking of going into your draft with a strategy to get some backs and forwards early, then you may want to have a look at a guy like Kelly as your 3rd or 4th midfielder. He’ll often give you as much production as some guys drafted in the 4th or 5th round, with minimal fuss.
Here is another example of a guy being drafted too late, simply because his position eligibility has changed. The 27 year old has hovered around the 90 point average mark virtually his whole career, but he has become an unfashionable pick in fantasy drafts this year, going around the 12th or 13th round. Be sure to keep an eye on him. He’s the most durable component of the premiership winning midfield, and one of the few under 30.
There is plenty of great value in the midfield this year in the middle rounds. My strategy is to load up on the high end defenders and forwards early on in the draft. Then I go out and grab consistent guys to fill up my midfield in the middle rounds. The problem fantasy draft players run into is being out of depth in the defence or up forward when an injury or 2 comes along. So go ahead and stack your forward and defence in your draft, I’d rather go shopping for waiver wire options in the midfield early in the season than in the forward and defensive lines.
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